Newsletter

Programming note: ARPU will return next Tuesday and take a look at the compute capacity constraints. What the Fed Discovered About AI If you are looking for a way to mathematically justify a $7.6 trillion AI build-out, the cleanest path is labor replacement. This is the AI maximalist

Programming note: ARPU will return on Friday and take a look at the business economics of neoclouds. Software Gets an Expense Account A strange thing happens when software becomes useful enough to act like an employee: it starts demanding an expense account. At Microsoft's most recent earnings call,

Programming note: ARPU will return next Tuesday to look at Microsoft. The $7.6 Trillion Question Silicon Valley has always had a high tolerance for faith-based investing, but the current cycle has elevated this to an institutional doctrine: if you pour enough billions into building a technology, the business

Programming note: ARPU will return on Friday with Part 2 of the AI CapEx story, exploring the macroeconomic paths to AI profitability. Manageable Luxury For the last two years, the stock market has treated Big Tech's AI infrastructure build-out as a manageable luxury. Sure, buying hundreds of

Programming note: ARPU returns next Tuesday with a two-part investigation into the macroeconomics of the AI capex boom, and the impossible choices it is forcing on the stock market. Dry Powder Is for Sitting On Quarterly earnings calls have a way of encouraging broad, optimistic narratives. They are highly

Programming note: ARPU will return on Friday and take a look at the sudden freeze in software buyouts. The 8% Halo If you are looking for the purest distillation of the current market cycle, you don't need to look at a Silicon Valley startup. You just need to

Programming note: ARPU will return next Tuesday and take a look at Nokia. AI Needs a Body In the early 2000s, "Dude, you're getting a Dell" was a catchphrase about buying a beige desktop PC to play Minesweeper or type up a college essay. Today, if

Programming note: we will return on Friday and take a look at Dell. A Sentient Sun If you read the prospectus for SpaceX's upcoming initial public offering, you will find a document that reads less like a standard S-1 and more like a syllabus for a graduate