Tech Newsletter

Oracle is an OpenAI Credit Story

Programming note: We've just released our thematic report: The Inference Economy: Where AI Margins Actually Come From in 2026. It's a deep-dive into the cost-per-token collapse, who's actually capturing margin across the AI stack, and why inference efficiency is emerging as the industry'
Oracle is an OpenAI Credit Story

The Wrong Nvidia Moat

Programming note: we will return next Friday with some thoughts on Oracle. Electrons In, Tokens Out In a podcast interview this week, Jensen Huang described his company in terms somewhere between engineering and philosophy: "The input is electrons, the output is tokens, and in the middle is Nvidia."
The Wrong Nvidia Moat

Microsoft's AI Problem Is Not Demand. It's Regret.

A note before we start: we published "Two Clocks, One Stock" — a systematic framework for reading the gap between software valuations and operational reality. It scores every software name on two dimensions: where its trailing PE sits in its own three-year history, and where its operations do. The
Microsoft's AI Problem Is Not Demand. It's Regret.

Google Just Sorted the Memory Trade

Programming note: we will return on Friday and take a look at Microsoft. The Two-Class Memory Market One of the peculiar features of an AI bubble is that investors eventually start buying nouns. "Compute" works. "Power" works. "Memory" definitely works. Never mind that memory
Google Just Sorted the Memory Trade

Oil Shock and the Cost of Intelligence

Programming note: our next issue lands 6 April, where we will take a look at the memory crunch. How to Fund AI with $100 Oil During the past few years, the Federal Reserve has been trying to pull off a soft landing—bringing inflation down without crashing the economy—something
Oil Shock and the Cost of Intelligence

OpenClaw and the Great Mac Mini Shortage

Lobster Farming The most interesting economic indicator in AI right now is not Nvidia's revenue beat or a LLM benchmark score. It is the wait time for an Apple Mac Mini in Shenzhen, China. For many years, the Mac Mini has lived in the neglected corner of Apple&
OpenClaw and the Great Mac Mini Shortage

Private Credit's Software Problem

Programming note: ARPU returns 23 March, where we will take a look at the real-world adoption of AI. Software Cockroach In the summer of last year, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon offered a grim warning about the sudden collapse of a few obscure companies funded by private credit. "My antenna
Private Credit's Software Problem

AI Pincer Movement

Programming note: Our next issue lands 13 March, where we will dig into market data to see if the tech industry's fundamentals are keeping pace with the narrative. Salesforce's Dilemma As we discussed recently, the software industry has been crushed by a new market narrative dubbed
AI Pincer Movement

SaaSpocalypse and the "Shoot First" Trade

Programming note: our next issue lands 6 March, where we will examine the current market narratives about key AI players and platforms. AI Eats Software Over the past few years, the market's operating assumption was that Artificial Intelligence was a magical productivity booster that would lift all boats.
SaaSpocalypse and the "Shoot First" Trade

Alphabet's 70% Return

Programming note: our next issue lands 2 March, where we will be diving into the market pressures facing software platforms. The $4 Trillion Vibe Shift If you rewind the tape just a year or two, the consensus narrative on Wall Street was that Alphabet was a vulnerable incumbent trapped by
Alphabet's 70% Return