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The Wrong Nvidia Moat

Programming note: we will return next Friday with some thoughts on Oracle. Electrons In, Tokens Out In a podcast interview this week, Jensen Huang described his company in terms somewhere between engineering and philosophy: "The input is electrons, the output is tokens, and in the middle is Nvidia."
The Wrong Nvidia Moat

Microsoft's AI Problem Is Not Demand. It's Regret.

A note before we start: we published "Two Clocks, One Stock" — a systematic framework for reading the gap between software valuations and operational reality. It scores every software name on two dimensions: where its trailing PE sits in its own three-year history, and where its operations do.
Microsoft's AI Problem Is Not Demand. It's Regret.

Google Just Sorted the Memory Trade

Programming note: we will return on Friday and take a look at Microsoft. The Two-Class Memory Market One of the peculiar features of an AI bubble is that investors eventually start buying nouns. "Compute" works. "Power" works. "Memory" definitely works. Never mind that
Google Just Sorted the Memory Trade

Tech Sector Diagnostics - 6 April 2026

Our weekly quantitative audit of the tech value chain is now available. This week's diagnostic focuses on semiconductor companies. 👉 The PDF report is available via the download link below: Tech Sector Diagnostics - SemisTech Sector Diagnostics - Semis.pdf39 KBdownload-circle This update represents 25% of our coverage. We are

Oil Shock and the Cost of Intelligence

Programming note: our next issue lands 6 April, where we will take a look at the memory crunch. How to Fund AI with $100 Oil During the past few years, the Federal Reserve has been trying to pull off a soft landing—bringing inflation down without crashing the economy—something
Oil Shock and the Cost of Intelligence

Tech Sector Diagnostics - 30 March 2026

Our weekly quantitative audit of the tech value chain is now available. This week's diagnostic focuses on the Software segment. 👉 The PDF report is available via the download link below: Tech Sector Diagnostics - SaaSTech Sector Diagnostics - SaaS.pdf308 KBdownload-circle This update represents 25% of our coverage. In

OpenClaw and the Great Mac Mini Shortage

Lobster Farming The most interesting economic indicator in AI right now is not Nvidia's revenue beat or a LLM benchmark score. It is the wait time for an Apple Mac Mini in Shenzhen, China. For many years, the Mac Mini has lived in the neglected corner of Apple&
OpenClaw and the Great Mac Mini Shortage

Tech Sector Diagnostics - 23 March 2026

Our weekly quantitative audit of the tech value chain is now available. This week's diagnostic focuses on the Cloud Computing segment, tracking fundamental vitals and valuation regimes across Hyperscalers and Hybrid/Multicloud providers. 👉 The PDF report is available via the download link below: Tech Sector Diagnostics - Cloud - 20260323Tech

Private Credit's Software Problem

Programming note: ARPU returns 23 March, where we will take a look at the real-world adoption of AI. Software Cockroach In the summer of last year, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon offered a grim warning about the sudden collapse of a few obscure companies funded by private credit. "My
Private Credit's Software Problem

AI Pincer Movement

Programming note: Our next issue lands 13 March, where we will dig into market data to see if the tech industry's fundamentals are keeping pace with the narrative. Salesforce's Dilemma As we discussed recently, the software industry has been crushed by a new market narrative dubbed
AI Pincer Movement