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Hyperscaler vs. Hyperscaler

Programming note: ARPU will return next Wednesday with some observations on the memory supply situation. Meta's AI Bill It is earnings season, which means it is time for the world's largest technology companies to announce how many hundreds of billions of dollars they are spending on
Hyperscaler vs. Hyperscaler

China Hacks the AI Math

Programming note: ARPU will return next Friday with some thoughts on the hyperscalers' latest results. Better Math for Worse Computers In the software industry, you sometimes delay a product launch because you are trying to make it run better on the fastest computers in the world. DeepSeek just spent
China Hacks the AI Math

Oracle is an OpenAI Credit Story

Programming note: We've just released our thematic report: The Inference Economy: Where AI Margins Actually Come From in 2026. It's a deep-dive into the cost-per-token collapse, who's actually capturing margin across the AI stack, and why inference efficiency is emerging as
Oracle is an OpenAI Credit Story

The Wrong Nvidia Moat

Programming note: we will return next Friday with some thoughts on Oracle. Electrons In, Tokens Out In a podcast interview this week, Jensen Huang described his company in terms somewhere between engineering and philosophy: "The input is electrons, the output is tokens, and in the middle is Nvidia."
The Wrong Nvidia Moat

Microsoft's AI Problem Is Not Demand. It's Regret.

A note before we start: we published "Two Clocks, One Stock" — a systematic framework for reading the gap between software valuations and operational reality. It scores every software name on two dimensions: where its trailing PE sits in its own three-year history, and where its operations do.
Microsoft's AI Problem Is Not Demand. It's Regret.

Google Just Sorted the Memory Trade

Programming note: we will return on Friday and take a look at Microsoft. The Two-Class Memory Market One of the peculiar features of an AI bubble is that investors eventually start buying nouns. "Compute" works. "Power" works. "Memory" definitely works. Never mind that
Google Just Sorted the Memory Trade

Tech Sector Diagnostics - 6 April 2026

Our weekly quantitative audit of the tech value chain is now available. This week's diagnostic focuses on semiconductor companies. 👉 The PDF report is available via the download link below: Tech Sector Diagnostics - SemisTech Sector Diagnostics - Semis.pdf39 KBdownload-circle This update represents 25% of our coverage. We are

Oil Shock and the Cost of Intelligence

Programming note: our next issue lands 6 April, where we will take a look at the memory crunch. How to Fund AI with $100 Oil During the past few years, the Federal Reserve has been trying to pull off a soft landing—bringing inflation down without crashing the economy—something
Oil Shock and the Cost of Intelligence

Tech Sector Diagnostics - 30 March 2026

Our weekly quantitative audit of the tech value chain is now available. This week's diagnostic focuses on the Software segment. 👉 The PDF report is available via the download link below: Tech Sector Diagnostics - SaaSTech Sector Diagnostics - SaaS.pdf308 KBdownload-circle This update represents 25% of our coverage. In

OpenClaw and the Great Mac Mini Shortage

Lobster Farming The most interesting economic indicator in AI right now is not Nvidia's revenue beat or a LLM benchmark score. It is the wait time for an Apple Mac Mini in Shenzhen, China. For many years, the Mac Mini has lived in the neglected corner of Apple&
OpenClaw and the Great Mac Mini Shortage