Programming note: our next issue lands 6 March, where we will examine the current market narratives about key AI players and platforms. AI Eats Software Over the past few years, the market's operating assumption was that Artificial Intelligence was a magical productivity booster that would lift all boats.

Programming note: our next issue lands 2 March, where we will be diving into the market pressures facing software platforms. The $4 Trillion Vibe Shift If you rewind the tape just a year or two, the consensus narrative on Wall Street was that Alphabet was a vulnerable incumbent trapped by

Programming note: ARPU will return on 23 February and examine the market narratives dominating the hyperscalers. Century of Faith The standard timeline for the AI economy is usually measured in months. We wait for the next model iteration, the latest GPU shipping estimates, or the next quarter's cloud

Programming note: The next issue lands 13 February, where we'll examine the financing of the AI economy. 120% Capture Rate Last time, we looked at the napkin math of OpenAI's intelligence treadmill, where every dollar of revenue seems to be immediately consumed by the cost of

Programming note: Our next issue lands 6 February, where we'll take a look at the value capture in the AI buildout. $1 for $1 Revenue The conversation around a potential AI bubble has grown louder, yet the pace of capital expenditure from hyperscalers shows no signs of slowing.

Programming note: The next issue lands 30 January, where we'll take a look at the state of the AI economy. Hand-to-Mouth at the Foundry The central wager at Intel is that the world really needs a high-end alternative to TSMC, and that being a U.S.-based company

Build vs Buy The core value proposition of the enterprise software industry has always been a trade-off between complexity and convenience. Building your own custom software used to be incredibly expensive and risky, so you instead paid a monthly fee to a company like Salesforce or Intuit. In exchange for

ChatGPT's Ad Machine If you own the front page of the internet, your business model usually relies on a very specific type of math. Google handles roughly 14 billion searches every day, but the vast majority of those are economically worthless. If you search for "what time

Programming note: ARPU will be off this week, back on Monday. Shovels for the Next Gold Rush If you are a global bank, you sometimes find it useful to tell your shareholders that you are on the cutting edge of technology. You want to suggest that you are using the

Macrohard is Very Hard The ultimate goal for many Silicon Valley startups is to eventually become a software company. Software is a great business model because its second copy costs the same to produce as its billionth: essentially nothing. It escapes the physical economics of the factory floor, promising high