Newsletter

The TSMC Bottleneck

The Empty Shelf One way to think about the US-China chip war is that it is a contest of government decrees. The US Department of Commerce says “you can’t sell that chip,” and so Nvidia can’t sell that chip. Then, after some high-level meetings and a change of
The TSMC Bottleneck

Kohlberg, Kravis, Roblox

The Roblox Roll-Up We were talking the other day about the bizarrely active market for mergers and acquisitions on Roblox, which raises the obvious question: Why? Why would a professional studio pay a teenager millions of dollars for a game that might be forgotten in six months? The answer is
Kohlberg, Kravis, Roblox

The Muskonomy

SpaceX's Side Hustle Here is a fun corporate governance story. Elon Musk’s rocket company, SpaceX, is investing $2 billion in his artificial intelligence company, xAI. This is part of a larger funding round for xAI, which is a private company. SpaceX is also a private company, but
The Muskonomy

Roblox M&A

Virtual Private Equity Here is a fun story about the creator economy. A 19-year-old who made a soccer video game on Roblox with an anime vibe sold it a few months later for more than $3 million. Not to a big game studio like EA or Ubisoft, but to another
Roblox M&A

The Browser Wars Are Back

OpenAI's Chrome So OpenAI is making a web browser. Which is a thing that startups do when they have a lot of money and are looking for new ways to spend it. But of course, this isn't really about building a better Chrome. It's
The Browser Wars Are Back

Managing Elon

Key Person Risk Elon Musk is launching a new political party called the "America Party." This is awkward, as it comes just days after a public feud with President Donald Trump, who threatened to cut off the government subsidies Musk's companies have built an empire on.
Managing Elon

Trump's Tariff Gun

Fab Diplomacy The conventional wisdom on President Donald Trump’s trade policy is that it’s mostly just chaos and bluster, a series of threats made on social media that are often walked back a day later. This week, however, the bluster got very real for a factory in Japan.
Trump's Tariff Gun

The Overconfidence Engine

Robot Forecasters One thing you might use AI for is to get stock tips. You have a powerful new technology that has digested the entire internet; surely it has some thoughts on where Nvidia is going? It seems some researchers, writing in Harvard Business Review, had the same idea, so
The Overconfidence Engine

Tesla the Narrative Company

DOGE Eats Its Own There are companies that you value by looking at their profits and cash flow and putting a multiple on them. And then there are companies that you value by listening to their story. You don’t buy the stock because it earned a lot of money
Tesla the Narrative Company

Off-Balance-Sheet AI Arms Race

The New Financiers of Tech You are a giant, world-dominating technology company with a market cap north of a trillion dollars and tens of billions in cash on your balance sheet. You have decided, out of a sense of "paranoia" and competitive fire, that you must spend even
Off-Balance-Sheet AI Arms Race