Nvidia CEO's 20-Year Quantum Computing Timeline Slams Quantum Computing Stocks
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Quantum computing stocks took a hit Wednesday, Reuters reports, after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang predicted the technology is still two decades away from practical use. This statement contrasts with the significant gains these stocks have seen over the past year, fueled by a high-profile breakthrough in the technology at Google last December.
Huang's comments, made at CES 2025, cast doubt on the near-term prospects of quantum computing, a sector that was already expected to require substantial investment. He indicated that a timeframe of 15 to 30 years for "very useful quantum computers" is likely.
This lengthy timeline is causing consternation in the quantum computing sector, which has seen its stocks surge at least threefold in 2024. These companies, including IonQ and Rigetti, were outperforming Nvidia until Huang's remarks.
"The 15 to 20-year timeline seems very realistic," said Ivana Delevska, investment chief of Spear Invest, to Reuters. "That is roughly what it took Nvidia to develop accelerated computing."
The companies stand to lose over $8 billion in combined market value as investors grapple with the implications of Huang's assessment. Despite the long wait, the technology is seen as crucial for national security, with countries investing heavily in quantum decryption capabilities for military purposes.
However, the revenue generated by these companies remains relatively small. IonQ, currently valued at over $10 billion, is projected to generate $41.6 million in fiscal 2024 revenue. Rigetti, with a market cap of approximately $4.4 billion, is expected to bring in $11 million for the same period.
"There will be considerable government-related revenues in the next few years," said Craig-Hallum analyst Richard Shannon to Reuters. He also noted that the long-term impact of quantum computing could disrupt the classical computing sector, of which Nvidia is a major beneficiary.
Despite the current setback, the potential of quantum computing remains significant. The technology is considered a key national security priority, and its long-term impact on various industries is expected to be substantial. However, Huang's assessment highlights the considerable challenges and timeframes involved in realizing the technology's full potential.